Ice cream and shark attacks

Video Ice cream and shark attackSoda and ice cream are associated with violence. What what? And others have concluded that smoking, chocolate and chips is good for you. Why does it happen when? Read: Ice Cream and Shark Attack I’ll clarify – but also go a lot further and show you… keep an eye out… that it doesn’t even matter to determine why such problems are true. importance to informed driving choices. Who do how? It’s time to declare a second “correlation without causation” about zen readability. Do it! Ice Cream and Shark Assaults Based on information, ice cream consumption is associated with shark assault incidents. How why? Appropriately, perhaps consuming ice cream makes you more stylish? So you gobble up ice cream and the shark will eat you. However, the more accepted interpretation of sharks is that it is of a seasonal nature. It just so happens that, when it gets hotter, other people are eating ice cream and others are swimming in the ocean. not even directly. Instead, they are all attributed to a third problem. So the great news is that we’ve discovered a hyperlink, a connection, a correlation between these two components of knowledge – and it’s worth it. Both are certainly predictions of each other. If we see an increase in total ice cream sales, we can accurately verify the likelihood of the next shark attack and vice versa. The danger, however, is that, after we discover such correlations, sometimes their common trigger, some third problem, is simply not in our knowledge. us in any respect. Such knowledge is not included, as it has been overlooked or would have been difficult or expensive to obtain. So we capture the predicted correlation, however there is no clear causal rationalization as to why this is the case. In 2011, an economics professor and a health insurance researcher made this public as the result of their final analysis. Among adolescents, they found, “strong association between soft drinks and violence…” They often added, “… drinking more than 5 cans of non-diet soft drinks per week was associated with increased probability 9-15 percentage points engage in violent acts… There may be a direct cause-and-effect relationship, possibly due to the sugar or caffeine content in soft drinks. ”In fact, after that, a flurry of media protections erupted, with headlines like, “Soda totally turns teenagers into killers.” Then the skeptics started pushing again. Now, they do not query the correlation between soda consumption and violence. In part, they question cause-and-effect relationships. Okay, you should be able to conclude that there is a hyperlink, a connection, a link, a correlation between the two components without understanding fundamentally why it is. The “why” – the reason – always includes the cause: some perception of how the issues affect or have an effect on each other. The immediate criticism here is that you should not conclude that soda causes violence. In part, it may be that the weight loss plan is related to socioeconomic status. Revenues drop teenagers gobble up many snacks, along with sodas, and poverty in itself is a dangerous problem for youth violence. Now if that story is true, the causal hyperlinks demonstrated right here – like, the exact way in which poverty leads to violence – can be quite advanced and multi-stage. passage, however the extent is that this can be a believably various rationalization without ‘No soda doesn’t even directly cause violence, so there’s no reason to sound the alarm. about the dangers of soda. Even if it is true that violent people drink more soda, there is no reason to completely imagine that drinking soda will make you more violent. That would be the same as assuming that consuming more ice cream would trigger additional shark attacks. Ice cream and soda can also be dangerous for you, but that’s not the case. … Is what the causationists say. Read more: Ice cream builds a bear“Eating chocolate more often is associated with a lower body mass index,” according to the response of three University of California health and economic researchers who revealed this. Their article states that this association is “probably causal,” as chocolate may reduce fat accumulation. A BBC headline featured, “Chocolate ‘Can Help Keep People Slim'” and a Wall Road Journal video with “It Seems To Make You Thin” in its caption began with “It doesn’t make you fatter.” Now, I’d say that people’s passionate love for chocolate precipitates this dreamy consideration and daring assumption of cause and effect… but then again I can’t do it. certainty what prompted them to fake it. Anyhow, inventing a correlation between two objects does not imply that one object causes the opposite, not even directly. Basically, it doesn’t tell us anything about any causal relationship. College lobbies and Web chat rooms echo with frequent reminders of this ultimate stark warning: “Correlation does not imply causation.” Statisticians absolutely scream this rule from the usual simple roofs that the press and giant knowledge hacks ignore. Now, consider chocolate consumption and just body mass loss, another reliable causal rationalization might be that people reward themselves with chocolate when they lose a few pounds. That is, weight loss leads to chocolate consumption, quite the opposite. They were already skinny. Or another risk is poverty, which is associated with greater weight, which in addition causes chocolate to cost much less, so those with reduced sales will consider more normal and eat less as well. much more chocolate. could be some mixture of all these completely different causal relationships. We do not know. The main level is, you have to live in that uncertainty and stay away from the temptation to assume a particular cause-and-effect relationship when only one has been established. Change your mind to just accept this ignorance. Smoke Another example: Smokers are less likely to experience repetitive movement dysfunction. An ergonomic marketing consultant has found that, among the editors of a major metropolitan newspaper, smokers are much less likely to develop carpal tunnel syndrome. Could this be a real benefit of smoking? I don’t think so! The marketing consultant believes it is a result of smokers taking more breaks. Read more: Blue bunny mint chocolate chip ice cream by itself offers no evidence that one rationalization seems to be more than another. The scientific establishment of causality often entails acquiring knowledge using an experimental set-up characterized by a management team. However, much of the knowledge in the market is not gathered for science. Typical “big data” initiatives take advantage of the vast amount of knowledge that companies generate in the normal course of running a business. In this day and age, the priceless explosion of knowledge exists only as an effect from the aspect of luck. Such knowledge, also known as “found data”, is like knowledge from a typical survey or so-called “vertical” analysis in that it does not imply any purposeful management group. So typical “big data” serves to identify correlations but not causation.Guess what else. Individuals who like “Curly Fries” on Fb are extremely smart. So does that imply that consuming potato chips makes you smarter? Exactly, that can make you nervous. As an alternative, the researchers imagine simply {that a} Fb site for this delightful meal commodity happens to gain recognition among relatively sensitive people. And finally, men who eat breakfast face a reduced risk of coronary heart disease. . However, that does not fundamentally imply that breakfast deserves to be considered an important meal of the day. We won’t conclude this association results from the meals themselves being good for you. As an alternative, the researchers recommend that breakfast consumption is representative of a lifestyle – for people with busy, high-stress lives, you’re more likely to skip breakfast, and you’re the best. The next object is also dangerous. But then again, that was largely simply an intuitive hunch. At all times, there are different plausible explanations.Now, you might ask, why doesn’t Dr. Knowledge even care about these things? Isn’t he the least curious? Yes, yes, for positivity – but that’s not my day job. People in the “real sciences” such as physics, chemistry, and medical analysis have reduced their work to them. They have to determine how the world works, why problems happen the way they do best. I don’t envy them – because we data scientists are much easier. In fact, this point was once made quite frankly by a chief analyst in the New York City mayor’s office in a published interview – and here’s the truth: “The cause is for those other… it’s very dice… You know, we have real problems to solve. Honestly, I can’t think of other things like cause and effect right now. “Okay, got the message! So, if a higher level of risk is anticipated for an individual, we don’t necessarily understand why to take appropriate precautions. For example, it could be helpful to screen men who skip breakfast for heart disease, even if we don’t fundamentally imagine scrambled eggs and tortillas as making a difference to our health. friend.This text is based on recordings from The Dr. Knowledge Present. CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL EPISODECDr. This new internet series breaks the mold for knowledge-scientific entertainment, appealing to the planet with succinct web codes that are the perfection of machine research and predictive analytics. Click here to watch additional episodes and join future episodes of The Dr. Knowledge Present.Eric Siegel, Ph.D., founding father of the Convention Series of the Worlds of Predictive Analytics and Insight and government editor of Predictive Analytics Occasions, makes the way and reason Because of predictive analytics (aka machine research) becomes easy to understand and interesting. He is the creator of the award-winning Predictive Analytics: Energy to Predict Who will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die, Internet host The Dr. Knowledge Present, a former Columbia University professor and a renowned speaker, educator, and leader in the discipline. Read more of his articles on knowledge and social justice and observe him at @predictions. Read more: Ice cream sugar on reddit